Thinking, F & S Dialogue (Ch 9-10) – with Dylan, Zach, and Lisa Hazlitt – D52

This was our last dialogue in this year with Dylan since he is going back to the U.S. I think, but he is coming back on February. Also, today Zachary Caceres and Lisa Hazlitt joined us for this dialogue. I must admit that I didn’t take full advantage of the dialogue, because I was not well prepared. Nevertheless, I think I learned some important things. 

Here are my notes of the dialogue:

• How fast do these systems react?
• System 1 – One tenth of a second
• System 2 – Longer, seconds, the longest, a few minutes.
• 
  
• There is luck, not patterns.
• The mind as a pattern-seeking device.
• Skinner: The superstition and the pigeon.
• False positive, we can see a pattern where there isn’t.
•  How does this affect in politics?
• There is also a causal pattern.
• Luck is pure randomness.

• Hot Hand
•  Is it statistical independent?
• Fooled by Randomness by Nicholas Taleb

• Negative capability: the ability to remain in doubts and uncertainties, and to resist the irritable need for answers (the need for closure).

•  Target vs. Heuristic Question

• Being attracted to someone is a basic assessment?
• It’s not according to Kahneman.
• For men is more probable to be a basic assessment than on women. Men tend to search attractiveness, while women search other qualities.

• Who is Daniel Kahneman?
• 1979, Prospect Theory
• Nobel Prize in economics